“If Santa should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.” —Yale Hirsh One of the little-known facts about the Santa Claus Rally (SCR) is that it isn’t the entire month of December but is actually only seven days. Discovered in 1972 by Yale Hirsch, creator of the Stock Trader’s Almanac (carried on …

Stocks have sold off hard after the Fed took a more hawkish-than-expected tone last week, which now has stocks looking at one of their worst December returns ever. The good news is that there is still time, and one of the most bullish times of the year is right around the corner. We will discuss …

“I am an optimist because I don’t see the point in being anything else.” Abraham Lincoln With all the talk about a pending recession and stocks in a bear market, today, I wanted to share some more thoughts and stats on recessions and bear markets. First things first, we do not currently anticipate a recession …

“The future ain’t what it used to be.” Yogi Berra We’ve noticed a recent trend: nearly no one is looking for stocks to do much in 2023. As Yogi said many years ago, the future ain’t looking too good. The general consensus is that the first half of next year could be very rough, with …

There are many reasons stocks and bonds have had a rough year so far in 2022, and right at the top is the huge spike in inflation this year. With the latest ‘most important economic event of our lifetime’, aka the latest CPI data coming out on Tuesday, today we’ll look at some continued better …

As we noted on the blog last week, December is historically a strong month for stocks, and we don’t expect 2022 to be any different. It is historically the third-best month for the S&P 500 since 1950 (April and November are stronger) and third-best during a midterm year (with October and November better). Here are …

Can you believe it? We made it to December! As we noted yesterday, we wouldn’t be surprised if we finished this year with some more green, but today we’ll look into the future and what could be in store in 2023. First things first, let’s start with something simple. Stocks will likely be lower this …

Can you believe it? We’ve made it to the last month of the year! I don’t know about you all, but I’ll be pretty happy to wish 2022 goodbye as soon as possible. But the good news is that we continue to think the mid-October lows were the lows from the bear market, and continued …

I was honored to chat markets and the economy with Mike Santoli on CNBC’s new Overtime show the day before Thanksgiving. It was a fun hit, and it was great to get four solo minutes on air. It always amazes me how quickly four minutes go by when you are in the hot seat, but …

“The stock market is never obvious. It is designed to fool most of the people, most of the time.” Jesse Livermore I’ve noticed a trend the past few weeks and that is since the mid-October lows most commentators say we are obviously experiencing a bear market rally in stocks. But is it really so obvious? …