The Bull Market Turns One

“There are no gains without pains.” – Benjamin Franklin Hard to believe it, but one year ago today the vicious bear market ended. I remember it well, as the bear market saw the S&P 500 down 25.5% from the early January lows at the close on October 12, 2022. The very next day we saw …

4 Reasons We Believe That Israel’s War Against Hamas Won’t Be Market Moving and 2 Things That Could Change That

We have received several questions about the potential market impact of Hamas’ brutal terrorist attack on Israel, the Israeli response, and the on-going aftermath. Thinking about these kinds of issues is our job, but we are also well aware that these considerations are trivial compared to the events themselves and the lives they impact. Looking …

Four Reasons We Believe Stocks Won’t Crash in October

“October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.” -Mark Twain October is known for many things, from sweaters, to leaves on the ground, to the World Series, to pumpkins, and yes, to market crashes. It …

Harvesting Insights: A Third Quarter Earnings Preview

Ah, the unmistakable signs of Fall are here – the crisp chill in the air, pumpkin spice adding autumnal warmth to seemingly every store shelf, and the lush green foliage gracefully yielding to a kaleidoscope ablaze with vivid colors. Yes, Fall is upon us which of course means third quarter earnings are approaching. Much like …

Here’s Why Yields Are Rising: The Economy is Strong

It really doesn’t get much simpler: the US economy relies on consumption, and consumption comes from income. Overall income in the economy is dependent on three factors: Employment growth Hourly wage growth Number of hours worked The above three are running strong, and so overall income growth across the economy is strong. That’s powering consumption. …

5 Things to Know About Recent Bond Losses

Another quarter in the books, another quarter of losses for bonds. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index (“Agg”) fell 3.23%, which is the eighth worst quarter on record dating back to index inception in 1976. The index has now declined six of the last eight quarters with the two-year return -7.3% annualized. To be fair, …

That’s Cracked! Consumers May See Relief at the Pump Despite High Oil Prices

It seems like there’s always one shoe or another ready to drop on the economy. There were fears over a government shutdown (punted for now) which Ryan wrote about, along with the restart of student loan payments and strikes. Other issues that have investors worried are another bank crisis (like Silicon Valley Bank), or a …

Has Tech Lost its Mojo? A Market Overview

In the ever-evolving world of investing, markets can shift in the blink of an eye. While a mere few weeks do not necessarily establish a solid trend, it’s hard not to notice that the Technology Sector, which had been a front-runner for a significant part of the year, seems to have taken a backseat. Since …

The Strikes Are Telling Us Something Really Important About the Economy

Strikes, student loans, and shutdown have been the top 3 concerns for investors in recent weeks. Earlier this week, Ryan wrote about the government shutdown, and I discussed why the student loan payment restart may not be a huge concern. I want to tackle strikes in this post. Strikes have been in the news recently, …

Why Stocks Should Rally In The Fourth Quarter

“Wake me up when September ends.” -Green Day Good riddance to what has been a very rough month for stocks. In fact, both August and September saw weakness, living up to their reputation as a potentially troublesome timeframe based on seasonality. Most might not remember it now, but the first half of 2023 was one …

Why The Student Loan Payment Restart Is Not Going to Crash the Economy

We’ve gotten a lot of questions about the potential impact of a government shutdown and the restart of student loan payments in October.  Ryan wrote about the government shutdown yesterday, while today I will take a closer look at the student loan payments restarting.  The fear is that a sudden resumption of payments will result …

Questions to Consider During a Market Downturn

Questions to Consider During a Market Downturn

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