After the October inflation report, I wrote that “one month does not make a trend.” After the November report, I wrote that we have the “making of a trend.” We now have a trend! Headline inflation fell 0.1% in December, the slowest pace since May 2020. Inflation has now decelerated to 6.5% year-over-year, quite a …

Almost every outlook you open this season has forecasters predicting that 2023 will see a recession. In contrast, we here on the Carson Investment Research Team believe the economy can avoid a recession this year. Note that the recession calls are all forecasts and clearly do not reflect where the economy is right now. For …

The December payroll report was yet another upside surprise as far as employment data go. Monthly payrolls rose by 223,000, above expectations for a 200,000 gain. The unemployment rate was expected to remain at 3.7% but fell to 3.5% – tying for the lowest rate since the 1950s. This is not remotely indicative of an …

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) made a surprise decision on Tuesday to widen the allowed trading band for 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) from ~25 to ~50 basis points. This move signals a shift in the BOJ’s approach to monetary policy and inflation and is likely to be sustained by the incoming governor of the …

First, the good news – The Federal Reserve raised the Federal Funds rate by 50 basis points (bps) to the 4.25-4.50% range – a step down from the 75 bps rate hike pace they went with at the last four meetings. This was expected, but it’s always good to see confirmation. They also said that …

Inflation has been top of investors’ minds this year, especially since it’s resulted in the most aggressive rate hike cycle in four decades. Since the beginning of the year, many people (including me) thought it would be simply a matter of time before inflation starts heading back to earth. But it was not to be. …

Inflation has been on everyone’s mind this year, whether it’s households, investors, and the Federal Reserve. Surging inflation has weighed on consumer sentiment, though arguably, this is primarily because of gas prices. And as gas prices fell after the summer, consumer confidence started moving higher once again (I wrote about this back in September). We …

A big story this year has been the US dollar, which has surged. The chart below shows the sharp rise of the ICE US dollar index, which measures changes in the US dollar against a basket of other currencies, including the euro, yen, British pound, and the Canadian dollar. However, it pulled back by just …

The big headline for the November payroll report was that 263,000 jobs were created last month, well above expectations for a gain of 200,000. Job growth has slowed since the beginning of the year, but make no mistake, this is still a very strong pace of job growth. As Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted in …

A political strategist once said that if there were reincarnation, he would want to come back as the bond market. “You can intimidate everybody,” as he put it. With good reason, investors watch bond markets carefully for all sorts of signals about the economy, monetary policy, and inflation. And right now, a key signal from …